The Dynamics of Agricultural Productivity Gaps: An Open-Economy Perspective

Abstract：This paper draws on cross-country census data to study how agricultural productivity gaps have evolved over the last four decades. We find little tendency for gaps to decline on average despite global decreases in agricultural employment shares. We analyze the dynamics of agricultural productivity gaps through the lens of an open-economy model of structural change. We calibrate the model using international trade data, which are measured independently from sectoral value added and employment data. Quantitatively, the model predicts that relatively faster physical productivity growth in the non-agricultural sector has, in many countries, offset the movement of labor out of agriculture, leading to persistently lower value added per worker in agriculture. Consistent with the model's predictions, previous exports by sector are strong predictors of agricultural productivity gaps in the current cross-section of countries.

报告时间：2025年4月3日，下午2:00        

线下地点：73882必赢最新官网6-210会议室

主办单位：73882必赢最新官网数量经济研究中心、73882必赢最新官网73882必赢最新官网

协办单位：《财经论丛》编辑部

嘉宾介绍：

马啸，北京大学汇丰商学院助理教授，研究集中在国际贸易、宏观经济学和经济发展领域。在《经济研究》、International Economic Review、Journal of International Economics、Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics以及eview of Economics and Statistics等期刊上发表论文。2023年，荣获世界贸易组织青年经济学家论文奖。